The Mighty Ron Zook: Or How I Learned To Love The Juice Bomb

Ron Zook this. Ron Zook that. Here's Ron Zook. There's Ron Zook. Everywhere there's a Zook. Yawn.

Some segments of the Middle East have extolled the Zookster as the new Messiah (presumably those with ties to Champaign, Illinois). Me? I think he's okay. He ain't the Messiah and he ain't the anti-christ. I never bought into the "Zook can recruit but can't coach" mumbo jumbo, and I don't buy into the fact he's the saviour of the Big 10.

Lots of people look at the Illinois recruiting classes and get all bug eyed about "all the 4 and 5 star guys" that committed to Illinois. I wanted to take a closer look at things, so I took a look at Zook's first recruiting class, the 2005 class.

That class had three 4 star guys: (1) Ismail Abunan; (2) Derrick McPherson and (3) Rashard Mendenhall. None of those guys are on the 2008 Roster for Illinois (yeah, I know, Mendenhall is a 1st round pick and I'm happy he isn't playing IU this year, but the point is simply, who is on the active roster...).

There were 20 recruits for the 2005 class. Of those 20 recruits, 13 are not on the roster (Rahkeem Smith signed again in the 2006 class). Not only are 13 not on the roster, but only 6 players are currently in the two deep:

1. Britt Miller 3 star (Rivals ranking of 5.5)
2. Doug Pilcher 3 star (Rivals ranking of 5.6)
3. Will Davis 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)
4. Eric Block 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)
5. Sirod Williams 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.4)
6. Rodney Pittman 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)

That gives the 2005 Illinois class a net ranking of about 2.5 stars on average, with a Rivals averaged rating 5.25 per player.

So let me get this straight. Ron Zook and his staff are the saviour of Illinois Football (and the Big 10) because their first recruiting class has a retention rate of less than 50%? I don't think so.

Let's see, what are the counter-arguments? Here's some popular ones:

1. Zook and his staff know how to coach 'em up. Right, and the rest of the 120 Div. 1 coaching staffs don't know how to do that....

2. So what, Zook's losses from 2005 opened up the door for more higher rated players in later classes. Sure, I could buy that, but for the fact that 13 of the guys who went bye bye weren't already pretty highly rated.

3. These guys weren't going to get on the field anyway. Yeah right. They only counted when the Illini fans were running their collective yappers about how great of a recruting class they had. "Wooo hoooo, we got Derrick McMpherson"!!!!

Recruiting ranks are relevant only if the guys get on the field and play. If they don't, the aren't worth two squats of bear crap. If they do play, then ask, how much are they playing, are they positive contributors, etc. Take the 2005 Illinois class. Pilcher, Miller and Davis are very good players-none of whom were sexy recruits. Would you trade any of those 3 for Mcpherson? Chris James (4 star from the 2006 class)? No way.

Recruting is, by and large, a game of percentages, or odds. 5 star recruits are typically going to do well, on average. The potential success of 4, 3 and 2 star kids is on average, not as likely. Everyone can spot a 5 star player, and yet not a single team in the country lives and breathes on rise and fall of those guys. Fit, form and comfort. Like shoes!

2009 Verbal Commitments

Jeremy Gainer LB 6-1 215 5.7 Detroit, MI
Duwyce Wilson WR 6-4 190 5.7 Columbus, IN
Ted Bolser TE 6-5 212 5.6 Cincinnati, OH
Adam Replogle DT 6-3 265 5.6 Centerville, OH
Edward Wright Baker QB 6-2 205 5.6 Jeffersonville, IN
Lawrence Barnett DB 5-10 180 5.5 Fort Wayne, IN
Dimitrius Carr LB 6-1 200 5.5 Chicago, IL
Charles Chapman OL 6-6 274 5.5 S.Rockwood, MI
Jamonne Chester WR 6-1 194 5.5 Redford, MI
Dustin Kiel QB 6-3 220 5.5 Columbus, IN
Pat McShane OL 6-5 280 5.5 Stow, OH
Colin Rodkey OL 6-4 260 5.5 Monroeville, PA
Nick Zachery ATH 6-1 195 5.5 Sheridan, IN
Kenneth Watkins DB 6-0 185 5.4 Birmingham, MI
Mitch Ewald K 5-10 165 5.3 Aurora, IL

15 Verbals.

13 of 15 verbals ranked at 3 stars. That means 86.7% of verbals are 3 star players.
The average star ranking of this potential class is 2.867.
The average ranking is 5.526

If you take the average star ranking of 2.867 and compare it to Rivals.com's 2005 class ranking, this class would rank 31 (note Illinois was 45). Compared to the 2006 class ranking this class would be ranked 34th (note Illinois was 32nd). Compared to the 2007 class ranking, this class would be ranked 37th based upon "average star per class". Compared to the 2008 classes, this class would be ranked 40th. Larger classes get more points from sheer size, which frankly is absurd.

So what do we take from this? If you place this class back to 2005 through 2008 and measure it accordingly, it looks like this:

2005: 31st (Illinois under Zook was 45)
2006: 34th (Illinois under Zook was 32)
2007: 37th
2008: 40th

I've heard the gibber gabber (i.e., Purdue whiners complaining about "star inflation"), and it appears that to the contrary, that if there is star inflation from the 2009 class, then EVERYONE benefits from the inflation--not just Indiana. Furthermore, in the 2008 class, there were 34 pages of 3 star recruits with approximately the same amount of 3 stars on each page. For the 2009 class, there were 30 pages of 3 star recruits. I would anticipate that list to grow, but not by more than 4 pages worth of recruits. Stated differently, the notion of star inflation is silly. I mean I understand where it comes from (Boilermakerville), but geesh, at least do some research....

I should also point out that I don't put too much stock in "stars". Of course a roster of 5 and 4 star guys is going to win games--if they stay. System players and guys who haven't physically matured yet but will go under the radar at time. Take an offensive lineman. Some are just physically ready to play their freshman years because they've been lifting since they were 11 years old. Others are just growing into their bodies and haven't been able to do certain things. It is amazing what a couple of years will do to develop the growth of an OL. Think Robert Gallery the former TE.

Stars are good to the lay person. Coaches know best. Tandon Doss was a 2 star WR. You think after watching him play this fall that perhaps IU knew what they were doing? Hmmmmmm... perhaps!

This is why I don't watch Olympic lifting events

This poor guy needs to retire...

By the way, I never get bored of the following:

"Bubble gum and kiester kicking"

'

"I thought you were pre med"



"Fat, drunk and stupid"



"You'll get nothing and like it"



"King of sexual awareness week"



and of course, my favorite:

"Starr Maker"

Big 10 Network at IU yesterday

I thought it was an interesting 1 1/2 hour. Not sure I agreed with everything that Dinardo and Griffith said. I get the sense that Gerry hasn't watched a ton of film on IU either. What Dinardo should have said was that IU's talent has been upgraded from when he was there. There's no question that's the case.

From reviewing the scrimmage session (as well as the individual sessions), a number of players stood out to me:

1. Greg Middleton. Frankly, he is unblockable 1 on 1. He's so much stronger than last year. Just a great player.

2. Chris Phillips. Man, he is just a good defensive back who is physical.

3. QB play. I thought both looked good. Kellen needs to start, however.

4. Richard Council. A surprising (in a good way) player. Really has made good strides. I think he starts opposite Phillips

5. Tyler Replogle. This guy has got to get on the field. He is a pure unadulterated football player. A linebacker of old.

6. The other linebackers. More speed and stronger. They have made a great impression on me. Mayberry is huge and fast. Carrington looks good. Patterson looks fantastic. Darius Johnson is going to be a nice player for us.

7. The young kids like Doss, Tyler A., Belcher and Love are going to be very, very good players. Doss is legit. How on earth people missed him I have no idea, but he can play and play now.

8. Ray Fisher. Fast, effortless and has really impressed me. I'm excited for Ray to have a huge year.

9. Nick Polk. He's bigger, faster and his tackling has improved tremendously. By the time he graduates he will be All Big 10.

10. Zack Walker. I'm very impressed with him. Did a nice job of finding seams and making good cuts and exploding. Quite an asset out of the backfield.

I need to see more of the OL. I don't think they have jelled yet, but I think they have some improving to do.

Here's a good interview with Coach Lynch after practice. Great guy, and some great shots of the stadium construction.

What the hell am I writing about you ask?

Good question. Mostly, I'm writing about Indiana University sports--mostly football. During the college football season I think I want to expand and talk about all of college football. There are so many teams that generate interest. For example, how great is that mini penal colony at Penn State? Now that is a conversation topic. David Jones wrote a nice piece on Joe Pa and the boys in white and blue. The Fall of Penn State?


I could just talk about Pro Wrestling. That's always fun.























Or Paris Hilton






























Hell, we could even talk about the movie Roadhouse.

Now I know what your reaction is: "what the hell--Roadhouse? Patrick Swayze?". No, think Terry Funk, Sam Elliot and Kelly Lynch .

In any event, you get the idea--IU, Big 10 Football, College Football and Roadhouse--in that order. And cheerleaders. And Monty Python.

I'm coming back with my Big 10 predictions for the 2008 season. Hey, if you like them, let me know. If you don't, you can let me know too. I will say this, though, Ohio State should be the number 1 team in the country by the end of the bowl season.

Okay, let's talk about predictions for the Big 10 2008 football season

Team by Team. Here goes.

Illinois- 6-6 (3-5)
8/30 @ Missouri L
9/06 Eastern Illinois W
9/13 Louisiana-Lafayette W
9/27 @ Penn State L
10/04 @ Michigan L
10/11 Minnesota W
10/18 Indiana L
10/25 @ Wisconsin L
11/01 Iowa W
11/08 @ Western Michigan W
11/15 Ohio State L
11/22 @ Northwestern W

I don't think much of Illinois. I think Zook's recruiting is overrated. I will be doing something in the future about Illinois recruiting from 2005-2007 and how many of those 4 star wunderkinds are still on the team and/or contributing. You would be surprised.

Indiana- 9-3 (6-2)
8/30 Western Kentucky W
9/06 Murray State W
9/20 Ball State W
9/27 Michigan State W
10/04 @ Minnesota W
10/11 Iowa W
10/18 @ Illinois W
10/25 Northwestern W
11/01 Central Michigan L
11/08 Wisconsin L
11/15 @ Penn State L
11/22 @ Purdue W

Call me a homer. Don't care. We've beaten the almighty Zooker 2 out of the last 3 years. We'll make 3 of 4. Central scares me a bit, however. Mind you, this projection is based on Kellen Lewis staying healthy.

Iowa- 5-7 (2-6)
8/30 Maine W
9/06 Florida International W
9/13 Iowa State W
9/20 @ Pittsburgh L
9/27 Northwestern W
10/04 @ Michigan State L
10/11 @ Indiana L
10/18 Wisconsin L
11/01 @ Illinois L
11/08 Penn State L
11/15 Purdue L
11/22 @ Minnesota W

I love Kirk Ferentz and Norm Parker, but the offense sucks. I realize they had a new quarterback last year, but there's no excuse for that offensive line to not block better. Where is Dan Doering????


Michigan- 7-5 (5-3)
8/30 Utah L
9/06 Miami (OH) W
9/13 @ Notre Dame L
9/27 Wisconsin W
10/04 Illinois W
10/11 Toledo W
10/18 @ Penn State L
10/25 Michigan State L
11/01 @ Purdue W
11/08 @ Minnesota W
11/15 Northwestern W
11/22 @ Ohio State L

Michigan State- 7-5 (5-3)
8/30 @ California L
9/06 Eastern Michigan W
9/13 Florida Atlantic W
9/20 Notre Dame L
9/27 @ Indiana L
10/04 Iowa W
10/11 @ Northwestern W
10/18 Ohio State L
10/25 @ Michigan W
11/01 Wisconsin W
11/08 Purdue W
11/22 @ Penn State L

7-5 isn't bad. I could see them winning 9. 2010 MSU wins the Big 10. I'm not impressed by MSU's line play on either side of the ball. That will no doubt change in the next two years. Kudos thus far to Dantonio. Wonderful coach. The shameful JLS tenure will eventually be bled out of Sparty's body.

Minnesota- 2-9 (0-8)
8/30 Northern Illinois W
9/06 @ Bowling Green L
9/13 Montana State W
9/20 Florida Atlantic L
9/27 @ Ohio State L
10/04 Indiana L
10/11 @ Illinois L
10/25 @ Purdue L
11/01 Northwestern L
11/08 Michigan L
11/15 @ Wisconsin L
11/22 Iowa L

I don't buy the Brewster hype machine. Yeah, he's energetic as crap. So was Ed Orgeron at Mississippi. Filling a roster with JUCO's is a stop gap solution. Minnesota's defense will continue to flounder.

Northwestern- 5-7 (1-7)
8/30 Syracuse W
9/06 @ Duke W
9/13 Southern Illinois W
9/20 Ohio W
9/27 @ Iowa L
10/11 Michigan State L
10/18 Purdue L
10/25 @ Indiana L
11/01 @ Minnesota W
11/08 Ohio State L
11/15 @ Michigan L
11/22 Illinois L

Northwestern does nothing for me. You'd think after beating Indiana the last umpteen in a row they would. I just don't like them. And I hate their jerseys. The helmet sucks too.

Ohio State- 12-0 (8-0)
8/30 Youngstown State W
9/06 Ohio W
9/13 @ USC W
9/20 Troy W
9/27 Minnesota W
10/04 @ Wisconsin W
10/11 Purdue W
10/18 @ Michigan State W
10/25 Penn State W
11/08 @ Northwestern W
11/15 @ Illinois W
11/22 Michigan W

3rd time is the charm. OSU wins the National Championship.

Penn State- 10-2 (6-2)
8/30 Coastal Carolina W
9/06 Oregon State W
9/13 @ Syracuse W
9/20 Temple W
9/27 Illinois W
10/04 @ Purdue W
10/11 @ Wisconsin L
10/18 Michigan W
10/25 @ Ohio State L
11/08 @ Iowa W
11/15 Indiana W
11/22 Michigan State W

Hmm. Could be really good or not so good (but still respectable. The QB situation there is awful. Clark or Savage? Ugh.

Purdue- 5-7 (3-5)
9/06 Northern Colorado W
9/13 Oregon L
9/20 Central Michigan W
9/27 @ Notre Dame L
10/04 Penn State L
10/11 @ Ohio State L
10/18 @ Northwestern W
10/25 Minnesota W
11/01 Michigan L
11/08 @ Michigan State L
11/15 @ Iowa W
11/22 Indiana L

I actually enjoy watching Purdue play. I have no hard feelings for them. Tiller was and is a great, great coach. I think the Hope experiment is a disaster waiting to happen.

Wisconsin- 9-3 (6-2)
8/30 Akron W
9/06 Marshall W
9/13 @ Fresno State W
9/27 @ Michigan L
10/04 Ohio State L
10/11 Penn State W
10/18 @ Iowa W
10/25 Illinois W
11/01 @ Michigan State L
11/08 @ Indiana W
11/15 Minnesota W
11/22 Cal Poly W

If they get quarterback play they will be fine. If not, 7 wins would be a gift.

That's it then. Apart from the typical factors of key injuries, academic casualties, I think this is it.

I know the typical Illinois fan loves the IU predictions--and that's great--they should crow a bit. I mean after all, there is nothing more holy than a reformed whore. You know the saying right? The born again Christian who for 12 years partied like a rock star, and upon hitting rock bottom and backed into a corner called out to God? That born again Christian now becomes the biggest pain in the ass for the rest of humanity. That's like an Illinois fan. They spent an infinite amount of time wallowing in the basement of the Big 10, then poof, they get to 9-4. Good for them. I enjoyed watching them last year. Now, however, the Illinois fans place themselves on the alter of the football gods and anoint themselves as the saviors of the Big 10, looking down upon the sheep of the mid to bottom Big 10 with scorn. So laugh Illinois fans. Take your shots, enjoy the limelight. Methinks it will be a brief stay for you. As Dennis Miller once said, nobody finds God on prom night.

I will say this, however, Mike Locksely is a genius. An unbelievable recruiter. A true head coach in waiting.