The Mighty Ron Zook: Or How I Learned To Love The Juice Bomb

Ron Zook this. Ron Zook that. Here's Ron Zook. There's Ron Zook. Everywhere there's a Zook. Yawn.

Some segments of the Middle East have extolled the Zookster as the new Messiah (presumably those with ties to Champaign, Illinois). Me? I think he's okay. He ain't the Messiah and he ain't the anti-christ. I never bought into the "Zook can recruit but can't coach" mumbo jumbo, and I don't buy into the fact he's the saviour of the Big 10.

Lots of people look at the Illinois recruiting classes and get all bug eyed about "all the 4 and 5 star guys" that committed to Illinois. I wanted to take a closer look at things, so I took a look at Zook's first recruiting class, the 2005 class.

That class had three 4 star guys: (1) Ismail Abunan; (2) Derrick McPherson and (3) Rashard Mendenhall. None of those guys are on the 2008 Roster for Illinois (yeah, I know, Mendenhall is a 1st round pick and I'm happy he isn't playing IU this year, but the point is simply, who is on the active roster...).

There were 20 recruits for the 2005 class. Of those 20 recruits, 13 are not on the roster (Rahkeem Smith signed again in the 2006 class). Not only are 13 not on the roster, but only 6 players are currently in the two deep:

1. Britt Miller 3 star (Rivals ranking of 5.5)
2. Doug Pilcher 3 star (Rivals ranking of 5.6)
3. Will Davis 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)
4. Eric Block 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)
5. Sirod Williams 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.4)
6. Rodney Pittman 2 star (Rivals ranking of 5.0)

That gives the 2005 Illinois class a net ranking of about 2.5 stars on average, with a Rivals averaged rating 5.25 per player.

So let me get this straight. Ron Zook and his staff are the saviour of Illinois Football (and the Big 10) because their first recruiting class has a retention rate of less than 50%? I don't think so.

Let's see, what are the counter-arguments? Here's some popular ones:

1. Zook and his staff know how to coach 'em up. Right, and the rest of the 120 Div. 1 coaching staffs don't know how to do that....

2. So what, Zook's losses from 2005 opened up the door for more higher rated players in later classes. Sure, I could buy that, but for the fact that 13 of the guys who went bye bye weren't already pretty highly rated.

3. These guys weren't going to get on the field anyway. Yeah right. They only counted when the Illini fans were running their collective yappers about how great of a recruting class they had. "Wooo hoooo, we got Derrick McMpherson"!!!!

Recruiting ranks are relevant only if the guys get on the field and play. If they don't, the aren't worth two squats of bear crap. If they do play, then ask, how much are they playing, are they positive contributors, etc. Take the 2005 Illinois class. Pilcher, Miller and Davis are very good players-none of whom were sexy recruits. Would you trade any of those 3 for Mcpherson? Chris James (4 star from the 2006 class)? No way.

Recruting is, by and large, a game of percentages, or odds. 5 star recruits are typically going to do well, on average. The potential success of 4, 3 and 2 star kids is on average, not as likely. Everyone can spot a 5 star player, and yet not a single team in the country lives and breathes on rise and fall of those guys. Fit, form and comfort. Like shoes!